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An innovative approach for the simulation of the regional photovoltaic power generation in energy scenarios

Sujet: [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SPI.NRJ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power
Auteur: Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie, Ranchin, Thierry, Wald, Lucien, Dubus, Laurent, De Felice, Matteo, Claudel, Sandra, Khong, Duc-Huy, Thornton, Hazel, Troccoli, Alberto
Résumé: Accurate calculation of the power generated by photovoltaic (PV) plants in a region requires the knowledge of thedetailed characteristics of the plants, which are most often unavailable to public. Within the Copernicus ECEMproject, an innovative approach was developed with the objective to reach the best possible accuracy of the powergenerated in many regions to feed energy scenarios without having to collect detailed information on PV plants.Approaches were proposed that consist in collecting the characteristics of numerous plants in the studied domainto simulate the regional PV generation with a physical model [1]. Such approaches are likely to yield accurateresults but the exhaustive data collection practically needed makes them very consuming in human and computerresources. Other approaches consist in selecting a very simple PV model, with a very limited number of unknowns.The implementation is much easier at the expense of the model accuracy.The innovative approach is based on a physical model coupled with a statistical distribution of the parameters of amodel describing the configuration of a PV plant. The PV power generation is first calculated for all configurationsfrequently found in the region and then aggregated under consideration of the probability of occurrence of the plantconfigurations. A statistical distribution evaluated for several thousands of PV plants located in Germany has beenused to estimate that of other European countries. This has been achieved by adjusting the distribution using thelatitude- and weather-dependent optimal PV tilt angle.Time series of PV power generation have been calculated with the innovative approach using adjusted ERA in-terim data for 33 countries in a 3-h time resolution. The irradiation data used are ERA-interim data adjusted tothe Helioclim3v5 data [2] and the temperature data is taken from the ERA interim dataset. The model output hasbeen compared to production data provided by transmission system operators for Germany and France for the year2014. Relative RMSE of 4.2 and 3.8 % and relative biases of -2.4 and 0.1 % were found for France and Germany.[1] Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., Good, G., Braun, M., 2017. A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photo-voltaic power production. Sol. Energy 147, 247-276[2] Jones P. D., C. Harpham, A. Troccoli, B. Gschwind, T. Ranchin, L. Wald, C.M. Goodess, and S. Dorling, 2017."Using ERA-Interim Reanalysis for creating datasets of energy-relevant climate variables", Earth Syst. Sci.Data Discuss., doi:10.5194/essd-2016-67, in review.
Editeur: HAL CCSD